Oscar 2020 - Predictions

I promised that I'll write a predictions entry, although I'm more and more convinced with each passing year to give up on this habit. I've said multiple times why, so I won't repeat it (I might say it again without intending to later anyway). As usual, I'll stick to the categories where I've managed to see everything = thanks to the Academy for the approachable dispersion rate among the nominees :P

Animated Feature Film - 2019 wasn't a very bright year for animations. "How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" closed the franchise with a sort of GoT finale feeling. Lazy, boring and senseless writing. Doesn't deserve more comments. "I Lost My Body" is a French animation that plays the role of "the something different" for this year, a typical habit of the Academy to throw in a title that looks more "artistic"/mature to save the appearance of a category for kids. In brief, it's the story of a severed hand looking for its owner, which gives us the opportunity to get through the guy's life. The premise is promising, the final result is too pretentious and ends abruptly. Moreover, technically, the animation is not the best - it's done in the classic 2D manner, which is actually a nice thing, but there are parts where the frames are scarce leaving more of a stop motion impression (which I always thought it looks terrible in 2D). To conclude, we're left here with three candidates with some real chance: "Klaus" - a cute version of the Christmas origin story, which actually gives some sense to the gifts tradition and other customs; "Missing Link" - where a Sasquatch looking for a family meets some very unfriendly Yeti; "Toy Story 4" - (aka "The Search for Forky") on which I wrote last summer. All three of these are ok, but I'd say none of them is a memorable piece of animation. So, as much as I'd be fed up with the typical Pixar over-sentimentalism, I guess the latest "Toy Story" is the one that has that something required to move you a bit more than the rest, ergo my bet goes there.

VFX - In the last few years the award for visual effects typically was given to movies including less CGI. Probably because you can't see much difference between the movies relying on that for VFX. So, on this ground I'd exclude the latest "Avengers" and "Star Wars" from the nominees. What's left? "The Lion King" is a "real-life" animation that's not much more than what we've seen in "The Jungle Book" a couple years ago, when it also took the Oscar, the team behind it being the same. So, I'd say it won't happen for a second time. There are many saying that "The Irishman" is the main contender here due to the digital rendering of De Niro, Pacino, etc passing through different age periods. As I was saying in the review I did at the end of last year, for me the result looks almost as hideous as "J. Edgar". So, as final option, I'd go for "1917", which might bring up the question "where are the VFX?". Well, actually in many scenes, and the plus comes from the way these blend in with the rest ;)

Sound Editing & Mixing - In brief editing = effects, mixing = the sound track arrangement. Almost every year the lists of nominees have a single difference (probably to justify splitting in two categories - BAFTA or other awards have just one sound section). This year the single entries are for "Star Wars" on editing, and for "Ad Astra" on mixing. I doubt either has any chance - although the the final track in "Ad Astra" is actually nice. To continue cutting from the common nominations, the first to fall out is "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood", basically here just to fill up the numbers. We're left with three options. "Joker" doesn't seem to have much on editing, but scores better on mixing. I guess though that the final call will be between "Ford v Ferrari" si "1917", which are a on top of the rest. I'd risk to go again with "1917" on both counts. The final track is by far the best I've heard last year. On the editing side is closer to the other one, but well... I might be subjective :-) I was more impressed by the sound variation from the "silence" of the woods to the bombs explosions than by the wheels screeching and engines hurling in the other movie.

Music - Score - As above, for the score I think we're also left with two choices. First, the ones to pass I'd say that are: "Star Wars" - the soundtrack written by John Williams is nice, we have some new elements, but still it sounds a bit too much alike to what we've heard before; between "Marriage Story" by Randy Newman and "Little Women" by Alexandre Desplat I can't decide on the irritating factor (probably the latter), but I might be again subjective - anyway, I find these two repetitive, and a bit too present for the genre of the movies they're supposed to fit. So the choice would be between "Joker" by Hildur Gudnadottir and "1917" by Thomas Newmann. The first is given as favorite by pretty much everybody with a score that amplifies well the tension in the movie. However, I prefer the soundtrack of "1917", which for me brings exactly the needed contrast, where is needed. So, maybe we'll have a surprise here ;)

Costume Design - Usually I'm avoiding this section because I have zero experience for a qualified opinion. Still, this year I'd give a quick one. From what the online says, the main contender is "Little Women". Strictly visual, I'd go for a surprise, which is "Jojo Rabbit", where this part contributes to the colorfulness of the movie. We might go further with some philosophy about the meaning of this colorfulness :-) but let's stay on track. The other nominees here are "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood", "The Irishman" and "Joker".

Production Design aka art direction = location setting + set decoration. To start again by cutting off the outsiders, "The Irishman" is first to drop. "Jojo Rabbit" and "Parasite" probably break even, and what we see there is actually probably a bit above the online favorite here, which is: "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood". I assume the reason for that is to walk out over some movie sets and bringing some variation by doing this. On my side, I see "1917" miles away from the rest of the nominees. Basically, at least half of the movie is built over a perfect integration of the scenery with the camera work. Only the fact that the lengths of the prepared terrain was calculated to sync with the length of the shots is something to count for already. Anyway, the clip below says much more, but its second part is probably more relevant than anything else I could write here.

Film Editing - This is probably one of the most difficult to predict categories of this year. I guess that we can place "The Irishman", "Jojo Rabbit" and "Joker" in a second tier. The other two nominations where I think the battle will be are "Ford v Ferrari" and "Parasite". It's hard to compare the editing of the two movies, since it's directed towards completely different directions. In "Ford v Ferrari" we have fast race scenes, with cuts made to keep you caught in the alertness of the action, in "Parasite" we get a thriller editing with enough moments where you don't know what the next second brings, the fitting of sequences giving a certain rhythm and counting much in the final feeling you get. I'd say that "Parasite" is technically superior, but I might be subjective again. In any case, the clip below provides an excellent analysis, sparring me of any justification ;)

Cinematography - As complicated it is to give a prediction for editing, as simple is to give one for the camera work. There's a clear distance between Roger Deakins and "1917" and the runner-up which I'd say it's "The Lighthouse", followed further by "Joker", "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" and "The Irishman". I wrote already that together with the production design this is where the strength of "1917" lies.

Original Screenplay - From all the nominees here I mostly liked the story & script in "Knives Out", but I have to admit it doesn't have the density of the script in "Parasite", which I see as winner here. There are also chances for "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood", but that's not really Tarantino's best. The nominees list is completed by "Marriage Story", which is a Woody Allen story written by, and "1917" where the script is fine, but not really among the best traits of the movie.

Directing - Again, we have a pretty certain prediction here: Sam Mendes for "1917". We also have here Bong Joon Ho for "Parasite", Scorsese for "The Irishman", Tarantino for "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" and Todd Phillips for "Joker". Compared to other years (and other categories) the level is quite high here; you can feel a consistent role of the directing and a personal touch in all the five movies. Still, I'd say the way Sam Mendes managed to stick together all elements composing "1917" place the directing here in a different league.

Best Picture - Nominations: "1917", "Ford v Ferrari", "Jojo Rabbit", "Joker", "Little Women", "Marriage Story", "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood", "Parasite", "The Irishman". The most important category was a bit of a surprise win at the latest Oscars, maybe with the exception of last year. I wish to not be again the case, because the widely accepted prediction is that "1917" deserves the title of best movie, and I totally agree. I don't want to make this long entry even longer. For most of the above I had a review, and about "1917" I wrote a couple weeks ago. Any result we'll have, "1917" is a win for cinema in general, and that's what finally matters.